Energy stock rankings (Oct 2014)

I find that ranking stocks is a useful analytical tool.  Ranking stocks against each other helps me be more realistic about how good or how bad a stock is.

I have some extreme and unconventional viewpoints.  Many “value investors” would have a list that would be the opposite of mine.  Many of the stocks I have shorted have been mentioned on ValueInvestorsClub.com as longs or potential longs.  Many of these people are quite intelligent and eloquent.  In my opinion, the longs do not understand how they are being bamboozled and misled by stock promoters.  I’ve written about this many times on this blog (e.g. “How would a sociopath fleece investors in oil and gas?” and “Beating Wall Street in oil and gas“).

While the independent E&P sector has seen a meltdown in share prices, I don’t see undervaluation.  The problem is that many of the companies continue to be run by stock promoters and charlatans (more so in the small caps than the large caps).  Until the management teams get better, I don’t think that the independent E&P space will be a good place to look for longs.  My prediction is that there will be more pain to come when NGL prices collapse.

Continue reading

Advertisements

Rex Energy (REXX)

Rex Energy is a $1B independent oil & gas company.  In many ways it is similar to other independent E&Ps (mediocre track record of value creation/destruction, high insider pay, constantly raising capital, etc. etc.).  Its most recent secondary offering was a year ago in 2012 when it sold shares for $9.25/share (for proceeds of $8.81 before dilution from the over-allotment option).  The current share price is $19.07.

While its balance sheet is not as deceptive/aggressive as Miller Energy or TransGlobe Energy, Rex has large liabilities that look a little suspicious.

The trade is a little crowded as 15.6% of the float is sold short.

Continue reading