Betting on a Potashpocalypse

I’m attracted to cheap options and this is the main reason why I am long Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT) put options.  The LEAP puts are trading with implied volatility in the mid 20s.  Potash pricing could collapse due to (A) a wave of excess capacity coming online and/or (B) the potash cartel breaking down.  While I have no special insight into whether or not this will happen, the expected return on this trade should be positive as long as the chance of a decline is high enough.

(This is not a high conviction trade for me.)

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Bondholder games

From reading through various financial filings, it struck me that many large corporations don’t pay a lot of attention to their bond holdings.  They allow investment firms to buy dubious bonds on their behalf.