Energy stock rankings (Oct 2014)

I find that ranking stocks is a useful analytical tool.  Ranking stocks against each other helps me be more realistic about how good or how bad a stock is.

I have some extreme and unconventional viewpoints.  Many “value investors” would have a list that would be the opposite of mine.  Many of the stocks I have shorted have been mentioned on ValueInvestorsClub.com as longs or potential longs.  Many of these people are quite intelligent and eloquent.  In my opinion, the longs do not understand how they are being bamboozled and misled by stock promoters.  I’ve written about this many times on this blog (e.g. “How would a sociopath fleece investors in oil and gas?” and “Beating Wall Street in oil and gas“).

While the independent E&P sector has seen a meltdown in share prices, I don’t see undervaluation.  The problem is that many of the companies continue to be run by stock promoters and charlatans (more so in the small caps than the large caps).  Until the management teams get better, I don’t think that the independent E&P space will be a good place to look for longs.  My prediction is that there will be more pain to come when NGL prices collapse.

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New position: Chesapeake put options + other minor trades

This is a small position for me that I bought puts yesterday (Nov 5).  At the time, I did not realize that earnings was today.  The implied volatility on CHK options is in the low 30s for the 2016 LEAPs and seems to be rather low.  The historical volatility in the past 3 years was 40.97 according to Morningstar.  I think that the stock is a little overvalued (see my CHK post) and that the put options are a little undervalued.  This trade doesn’t have the greatest margin of safety.

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