AV Homes (AVHI)

This company is a mess but it isn’t as overvalued as some of the other homebuilders.  So, I don’t think it’s a great short.

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US Homebuilders: Time to Short Them?

In the past 12 months, homebuilding stocks have jumped in anticipation of a rebound in housing prices.  So far, the rebound hasn’t even occurred yet!  Home prices have stayed roughly flat since 2009.

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While I don’t think that I am any good at predicting future home prices, it seems to me that some homebuilders are overvalued.  There are some homebuilders trading well above their book value despite being unprofitable. Continue reading