Many media articles constantly talk about how smartphones and tablets will eclipse the desktop PC and that everything will move to the cloud. I believe that these beliefs are erroneous.
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ARM, Intel, and AMD in the (micro)server space
There is talk about ARM making inroads into the server market. I don’t believe that this will be a huge threat to Intel.
Film/TV production/technology stocks
Film/video stocks would definitely be in my circle of competence as I have some experience in the field from interning at post production facilities (e.g. Optix). I also have a degree (in Radio and Television Arts), but I wouldn’t take anybody with a piece of paper too seriously. Experience matters a lot more (you can’t get it in school) and many professionals in high-end film/video have no relevant degree (nor do they need one).
In brief, I dislike stocks related to film/video technology and film/video production. There is a curious absence of shareholder profits. For this reason, I usually do not research these stocks very much as they usually aren’t good longs.
Reading NI 43-101 reports: Data verification
Typically in a NI 43-101 technical report, the author will re-assay the drill core to verify the integrity of the assay results. This is to help spot Bre-X style frauds where somebody may be ‘salting’ a crushed sample with gold.
Here’s the crazy thing:
- Some people still commit blatant fraud… even though they will eventually be caught.
- Often in technical reports, there are issues with data verification and the author doesn’t care.
“Investing” in junior mining… a recap
Here’s how I see junior mining.
The promotional game
Almost all junior mining companies are promotional to some degree. All of the explorers have pretty much zero cash flow and are dependent on raising capital to fund their operations and the insider’s salaries. Most juniors are usually some mixture of a pyramid scheme and a genuine business. Here are some of the things they do: Continue reading
Really understanding an industry
Looking back on my past investing, I have invested in stocks that I don’t really understand.
I went long First Solar thinking that its unique technology gave it a low-cost advantage over the everybody else. This was true until polysilicon prices crashed and the situation reversed. First Solar is the high cost producer that’s at a severe disadvantage in the solar industry. The ex-CEO and the short sellers were very adept at anticipating the future and were strong sellers of the stock when First Solar was trading at several times today’s price.
Tesla (TSLA) short thesis
The short Tesla trade is extremely crowded. 60%+ of the float is sold short and the borrow was over 90% at one point.
I believe the main reason to short Tesla is because it has historically lost a huge amount of money every year. For every dollar in revenue, it has had at least a dollar of GAAP losses. The valuation is also ridiculous. The market cap is roughly $3B for a company that has less than $300M in book value ($62M as of June 30 2012, which is before the latest secondary offering).
