(The synopsis of this post is that I still haven’t been able to put all of the pieces of the puzzle together.)
Advertisements
stocks
More Pretium questions
Pretium questions from a reader of this blog
Pretium update: Apparently all the gold is there?!
Today, Pretium dropped a bomb of a press release: Bulk Sample Surpasses Target of 4,000 Ounces of Gold; Processing Continues. The preliminary results are that there is 4,215 ounces of gold in the 8,090 tonnes processed so far. It looks like the bulk sample results will exceed the resource estimate; this would be strong evidence that there is more gold in the deposit than originally thought. I’d be curious as to how much gold should have been in the 8,090 tonnes processed so far (according to Snowden’s resource model) as the press release does not say. Anyways, here are some possible scenarios for the current results:
- Strathcona messed up. In my opinion, this would be the least bizarre explanation and the most plausible.
- The preliminary results from the bulk sample are fraudulent due to assay problems. (Less likely.)
- Somebody added millions of dollars worth of gold to the bulk sample. (Least likely.)
Ring of Fire update: Cliffs is pulling out indefinitely
Cliffs has announced that it is pulling out of the Ring of Fire and has no plans to restart its activities (press release). I think that Cliffs is making the right decision because its own investors presentation showed that its chromite project was uneconomic (with the spot prices back then). This is very unfortunate for me because I own shares in Noront and KWG Resources.
The short selling playbook
This post is about the most common reasons why I think short sellers decide to target a stock.
Crocs: I guess I’m shorting this company now
I was wrong about John McCarvel. The way I judge a CEO’s operating ability is by looking at his or her prior track record. McCarvel had a run of a few very good years immediately after he became CEO in Feb 2010. In this situation, extrapolating from the past did not work. Currently, it seems like McCarvel was riding off of the momentum from the prior CEO (John Duerden) and is on track to slowly destroy Crocs. His decision to mislead investors with the share repurchase fakeout is bizarre and stupid. He is quickly destroying his credibility. And why exactly does he feel the need to mislead investors?
