Since January 2015, I’ve been using a research platform called Sentieo (website). The main attraction of Sentieo is “Document Search”, a tool that searches through EDGAR filings, investor presentations, and conference call transcripts at the same time. It allows me to find key pieces of information that I otherwise would not find.
For short selling, Sentieo is incredibly useful since almost all of my short selling involves tracking down scumbags. Much of my work is spent searching through SEC filings for names of people, company names, and addresses.
Kinder Morgan does have some problems:
- Under its new CEO, Kinder Morgan has been stretching its numbers slightly.
- The big drop in oil prices will hurt the CO2 business.
- The big drop in commodity prices will lower infrastructure demand in the short term.
However, I think that the 60%+ drop in the share price YTD is a little overdone. Kinder Morgan’s problems don’t seem that bad compared to other companies.
In the past, Arthur Berman and his colleague Lynn Pittinger wrote about shale reserve estimates at The Oil Drum. The 2011 post “U.S. Shale Gas: Less Abundance, Higher Cost” pointed out potential pitfalls from using analogy wells to determine decline curves.
Type curves that are commonly used to support strong hyperbolic flattening are misleading because they incorporate survivorship bias and rate increases from re-stimulations that require additional capital investment.