- The share price has gone up a lot.
- Altius is no longer buying back shares due to #1.
- A lot of Altius’ intrinsic value is tied to Alderon and whether or not its flagship Kami mine is financed. I absolutely do not trust Alderon’s management or the engineering firm (BBA) which prepared their feasibility study. I previously estimated that Kami’s all-in costs would be $120/ton. I believe iron ore spot prices are currently slightly less than that, so by my estimate a Kami mine doesn’t make sense right now. I recognize that my estimate is not very good and that it is virtually impossible for me to perform due diligence on the Kami project. I lack the engineering expertise and do not have access to technical data.
- No news is bad news. If Kami were economic (and my estimate overly pessimistic), some sort of financing deal might be in place by now (e.g. a takeover by a larger mining company).